Lula has won a historic fourth term, a hopeful signal that the far right can be defeated at the ballot box. Young voters, grassroots activists and more than 10 million members of “Lula’s Army” turned the tide in three weeks. Regine Schönenberg, Director of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung office in Rio de Janeiro, explains what drove this comeback, how civil society can defend social justice, climate and Indigenous rights against a conservative Congress, and what Europe should prioritise now.
1. What proved decisive in securing Lula’s re-election, and what does the close result tell us about the continued appeal of Bolsonarism in Brazilian society?
The historic switch to the leading position between the first and second turn of the Brazilian elections demonstrated the vitality of the Brazilian democracy. Within three weeks of intensive campaigning of “Lula's Army” on the streets and within cyberspace the election spirit changed completely. Especially, the mass mobilisation of young people energised the campaign. The most significant factor, however, was the online and on-the-ground mobilisation led by André Janones, a pro-Lula federal congressman, whose WhatsApp channel, known as “Lula's Army,” grew to more than 10 million members who followed his daily instructions to spread pro-Lula content. Over several weeks, rallies also brought supporters to the streets, many organised outside formal party structures. The result: About 3 million voters that abstained in the first turn participated in the runoff, and Lula gained about 4,4 million votes more than Flávio Bolsonaro, and about 10 million votes more than in the first round, whereas his opponent gained less than 4 million additional votes.
However, almost 60 million Brazilians voted for the candidate of the extreme-right due to a strong rejection of the person, Lula da Silva, the worker`s party (PT), an endless flood of fake news and Flavio’s aggressive promises of crime-combat in Bukele's style. Also, the fact, that Flávio Bolsonaro served as a substitute for his imprisoned father further weakened his campaign. Just as the far right fostered anti-PT sentiment within society, anti-Bolsonaro sentiment was a key factor in this election, leading people to reject Flávio Bolsonaro.
2. Where do you see the greatest opportunities – and political obstacles – for Lula to advance social justice, climate protection and Indigenous rights? What role can civil society play in pushing for progress?
Lula retaining the Presidency has a major impact on federal policy areas, such as social policies, environmental policy and various multilateral partnerships. In part, this election was not about Lula or the PT; it was about ensuring the continuation of social programmes and strengthening democracy. What must not be forgotten, however, is that from February 2027 on, Lula will have to deal with a Senate and Parliament that are considerably more conservative than at present. Traditionally, elections for governors, senators and members of parliament are heavily regional in nature and linked to numerous clientelist relationships. The fact that Brazil has a first-past-the-post electoral system does not help in this regard.
Lula's most important policy fields such as social justice, climate protection and Indigenous rights are in serious danger to be torpedoed by both chambers of Congress. Draft bills on all critical questions in those policy fields are already prepared and often ready for voting. To prevent them to get implemented is a complicated process of vetoing and counter-vetoing that, together with a lot of negotiation might take years. Unfortunately, the latter is true for constructive legislative projects of the government, too.
The extent to which Lula will be able to prevent the centre-right faction from adopting an obstructionist stance will depend on the composition and communication skills of his government team. During his first speech following his victory on Sunday evening, he was flanked by his loyal Vice-President, Geraldo Alckmin, and surrounded by young politicians and activists. He explicitly highlighted the issues of cybersecurity and the regulation of platforms, his learning process regarding political communication in the virtual sphere, and his plans for greater political participation. It spoke of a new beginning, innovation and the inclusion of civil society, which had made his victory possible in the first place.
It is therefore no surprise that Flávio Bolsonaro immediately declared that he would not recognise the election victory. The extension of polling station opening hours until 7 pm, due to rain and bus cancellations, is now being used as a pretext for this all too obvious manoeuvre, which is not expected to meet with much success. Flavio’s claim is controversial, given that his own campaign had also requested an extension of voting hours. In fact, people here are waiting for Flávio, just like his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, to leave the country for the US to escape prosecution over numerous corruption scandals.
3. What does Lula’s victory mean for Brazil’s relations with the EU, and what should European partners prioritise to support democracy and a socially just ecological transition?
The most important outcome for Europe is that Lula can now continue his role as an important player – entirely in the spirit of traditional Brazilian foreign policy – within forums such as the G20, BRICS and also in the EU-Mercosur agreement, and that Brazil will not bow to pressure to join Trump’s ‘Shield of the Americas’.
As a democrat, one can only hope that the shift in Brazil – and, at the same time, in Serbia – signals a reversal of a global trend towards greater democratic representation.
This article first appeared here: eu.boell.org
